NextDose: A web-based Bayesian dose forecasting tool

Last updated 29 July 2021



Figure 1

Patient Type

There are three NextDose options that describe the type of patient.

1.    Actual patient

The patient details, dose & observation data describe an actual patient.

2.    Test patient

The patient details, dose & observation data are used to learn about and test NextDose features.

3.    Demo patient

The purpose of Demo patients is to allow other NextDose users to see that patient as a demonstration example of using NextDose. Demo patients are only visible to users in the same group unless they have been tagged for all users (this can only be done by a NextDose administrator and care is taken to remove patient identifiers). Identifying a patient as a Demo patient should not be done for an actual patient simply to change data for ‘what if’ simulations. ‘What if’ simulations for actual patient data should be done by selecting the ‘what if’ option before performing a dose calculation.


Figure 2





Figure 3

What If

Secondly, we recognize the value of doing ‘what if’ dose prediction simulations based on changing Doses & Observations or the input used to define the target used for the dose prediction. This is implemented on the Calculation page where we ask the user each time to say if this calculation will use actual Doses & Observations and actual target values in order to make an actual patient dose prediction.


The first choice is usually an actual dose prediction:

Figure 4

But the choice for ‘what if’ dose prediction is often used to get a better understanding of the next dose options e.g. to show the concentration time course if the proposed dose was to be used.

The choice is recorded on the Results page and printed report and, importantly, is signalled on the left hand panel of the NextDose window with the date and time in red italics if a ‘what if’ prediction has been chosen (see example below).

Figure 5

In the current development version this requires the user to decide if the data has been changed but in a future version we may be able to help e.g. if none of the Dose & Observation data has changed and only the Target options have changed then the ‘what if’ option may be presented as the default.

Copyright All rights reserved | Developed by Sam Holford & Nick Holford 2012-2021